September 15, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 128 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -15 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:11 | 2:11 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 192 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -28 |
Gregor Gillespie earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:11, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jason Gonzalez was submitted.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 34 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 141 | 905 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Gregor Gillespie controlled the striking exchanges with 35.7% vs 51.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Gregor Gillespie capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:48 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 273 | 912 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -85 |
Gregor Gillespie dominated Jason Gonzalez on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 5:48 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 231 |
| Activity ELO | 1 084 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -19 |
Gregor Gillespie demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gregor Gillespie capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Gonzalez's 231-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 073 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Gregor Gillespie extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Gonzalez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

