November 1, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 186 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Kevin Lee's 9-fight experience advantage (16 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kevin Lee for the expected result. Had Gregor Gillespie pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 095 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:47 | 2:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 352 | 1 454 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +110 |
Kevin Lee earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:47, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 59 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 219 | 1 395 |
| ELO Change | -136 | +136 |
Kevin Lee controlled the striking exchanges with 21 vs 9 significant strikes, 35.6% vs 19.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Kevin Lee capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 407 | 1 423 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +71 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 287 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 172 | 1 342 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +23 |
Kevin Lee demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kevin Lee capitalized on this activity level, while Gregor Gillespie's 287-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 159 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +24 |
Kevin Lee started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gregor Gillespie is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gregor Gillespie | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 095 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.