June 28, 2025
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 191 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -41 |
Gregory Rodrigues overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 18 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jack Hermansson.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 100 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:21 | 4:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 462 | 1 386 |
| ELO Change | +113 | -53 |
Gregory Rodrigues earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:21, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 63 | 55 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 30 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 299 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | +108 | -108 |
Jack Hermansson controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (30 vs 18), superior accuracy (54.5% vs 28.6%). However, since Jack Hermansson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gregory Rodrigues's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 198 | 1 329 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 505 |
| Activity ELO | 1 261 | 1 307 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -29 |
Gregory Rodrigues demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gregory Rodrigues capitalized on this activity level, while Jack Hermansson's 505-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 131 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -23 |
Gregory Rodrigues started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jack Hermansson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 099 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

