February 15, 2025
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jared Cannonier |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 131 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Jared Cannonier's 9-fight experience advantage (19 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jared Cannonier for the expected result. Had Gregory Rodrigues pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jared Cannonier |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 077 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jared Cannonier |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 0:21 | 0:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 349 | 1 524 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +66 |
Jared Cannonier gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 4, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jared Cannonier |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 93 | 98 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 221 | 201 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 95 | 109 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 191 | 1 438 |
| ELO Change | -108 | +108 |
Jared Cannonier dominated the striking exchanges with 98 vs 93 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Jared Cannonier capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jared Cannonier |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:17 | 2:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 166 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Jared Cannonier landed 2 knockdowns followed by 9 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jared Cannonier |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 204 | 1 296 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +33 |
Jared Cannonier demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jared Cannonier capitalized on this activity level, while Gregory Rodrigues's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jared Cannonier |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 105 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Jared Cannonier started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gregory Rodrigues is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gregory Rodrigues | Jared Cannonier |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 076 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.