November 16, 2018
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 999 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Marlon Vera's 5-fight experience advantage (10 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marlon Vera for the expected result. Had Guido Cannetti pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:31 | 1:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 000 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +42 |
Marlon Vera earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:31, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Guido Cannetti was submitted.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 42 | 35 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 37 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 967 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Marlon Vera controlled the striking exchanges with 68.6% vs 57.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Marlon Vera capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:46 | 1:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 957 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -82 | +82 |
Marlon Vera controlled Guido Cannetti on the ground with 2 takedowns, 1:21 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 183 | 106 |
| Activity ELO | 1 018 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +46 |
Marlon Vera demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marlon Vera capitalized on this activity level, while Guido Cannetti's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 993 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Marlon Vera extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Guido Cannetti is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

