September 30, 2022
Bantamweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 971 | 933 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Guido Cannetti's 3-fight experience advantage (9 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Guido Cannetti for the expected result. Had Randy Costa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 990 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:04 | 1:04 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 128 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +78 | -41 |
Guido Cannetti earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:04, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 020 | 914 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Guido Cannetti slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 8 vs 2 significant strikes, 61.5% vs 28.6% accuracy. Guido Cannetti capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 959 | 864 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 294 |
| Activity ELO | 1 027 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Guido Cannetti demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Guido Cannetti capitalized on this activity level, while Randy Costa's 294-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Guido Cannetti extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Randy Costa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Guido Cannetti | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 990 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

