February 15, 2013
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 107 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -20 |
Gunnar Nelson overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jorge Santiago.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 933 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 113 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Gunnar Nelson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 80 | 123 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 47 | 52 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 097 | 835 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
Jorge Santiago controlled the striking through superior accuracy (35.0% vs 52.5%). However, since Jorge Santiago lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gunnar Nelson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:38 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 15 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 146 | 843 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Gunnar Nelson controlled Jorge Santiago on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:38 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 498 |
| Activity ELO | 1 059 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -18 |
Gunnar Nelson demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gunnar Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Jorge Santiago's 498-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 043 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -17 |
Gunnar Nelson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jorge Santiago is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Jorge Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 037 | 932 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.