March 22, 2025
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 25 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 171 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Kevin Holland's 10-fight experience advantage (25 vs 15 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kevin Holland for the expected result. Had Gunnar Nelson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 068 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 368 | 1 404 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Kevin Holland earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 55 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 89 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 138 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 130 | 1 357 |
| ELO Change | -68 | +68 |
Kevin Holland dominated the striking exchanges with 138 vs 30 total strikes, 55 vs 15 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Kevin Holland capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 9:29 | 1:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 18 |
| Ground ELO | 1 321 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Kevin Holland did not secure a significant ground advantage against Gunnar Nelson on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:04 of control time, 18 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 736 | 63 |
| Activity ELO | 1 165 | 1 354 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +40 |
Kevin Holland demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Kevin Holland capitalized on this activity level, while Gunnar Nelson's 736-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 108 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Kevin Holland started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gunnar Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 067 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.