March 15, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 189 | 1 289 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +27 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (11 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 073 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 387 | 1 440 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Leon Edwards receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 18 | 49 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 47 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 115 | 1 392 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Leon Edwards controlled the striking exchanges with 47 vs 27 total strikes, 31 vs 9 significant strikes, 63.3% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Leon Edwards capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:23 | 3:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 1 351 | 1 360 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Leon Edwards landed 1 knockdown followed by 11 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 267 |
| Activity ELO | 1 156 | 1 323 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +16 |
Leon Edwards demonstrated standard activity with 267 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Leon Edwards capitalized on this activity level, while Gunnar Nelson's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 7 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 107 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +45 |
Leon Edwards continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Gunnar Nelson's now at 0.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 072 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.