October 3, 2014
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -13 | 13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 104 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Rick Story's 13-fight experience advantage (17 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rick Story for the expected result. Had Gunnar Nelson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 038 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 171 | 1 288 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Rick Story receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 53 | 168 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 107 | 315 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 54 | 211 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 068 | 1 328 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Rick Story dominated the striking exchanges with 211 vs 54 total strikes, 168 vs 53 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Rick Story capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 0:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 202 | 1 306 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Rick Story landed 1 knockdown followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 77 | 80 |
| Activity ELO | 1 064 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +38 |
Rick Story demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 80 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Rick Story capitalized on this activity level, while Gunnar Nelson's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 054 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Rick Story extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gunnar Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 038 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.