March 18, 2022
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 181 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Gunnar Nelson's 8-fight experience advantage (13 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gunnar Nelson for the expected result. Had Takashi Sato pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 072 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 356 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Gunnar Nelson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 55 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 140 | 16 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 171 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -79 |
Gunnar Nelson dominated the striking exchanges with 140 vs 16 total strikes, 44 vs 9 significant strikes, 80.0% vs 39.1% accuracy. Gunnar Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 33 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 310 | 916 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Gunnar Nelson dominated Takashi Sato on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 8:09 of control time, 33 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 904 | 476 |
| Activity ELO | 1 152 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -14 |
Gunnar Nelson demonstrated extended layoff with 904 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Gunnar Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Takashi Sato's 476-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 106 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -16 |
Gunnar Nelson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Takashi Sato is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 071 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.