July 18, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 137 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -20 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 058 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:48 | 4:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 178 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -42 |
Gunnar Nelson earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:48, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Zak Cummings was submitted.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 117 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Zak Cummings controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (18 vs 13), superior accuracy (24.0% vs 54.2%). However, since Zak Cummings lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gunnar Nelson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:43 | 0:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 265 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +119 | -119 |
Gunnar Nelson dominated Zak Cummings on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:43 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 518 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 077 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -20 |
Gunnar Nelson demonstrated extended layoff with 518 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Gunnar Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Zak Cummings's 70-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 071 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -21 |
Gunnar Nelson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Zak Cummings is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gunnar Nelson | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

