March 22, 2025
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Guram Kutateladze | Kaue Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 977 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +37 |
Kaue Fernandes overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Guram Kutateladze.
| Metric | Guram Kutateladze | Kaue Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Guram Kutateladze | Kaue Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 975 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Kaue Fernandes earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Guram Kutateladze | Kaue Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 79 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 71 | 149 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 79 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 913 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Kaue Fernandes dominated the striking exchanges with 79 vs 36 total strikes, 79 vs 29 significant strikes, 53.0% vs 40.8% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Kaue Fernandes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Guram Kutateladze | Kaue Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 1:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 935 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Kaue Fernandes landed 2 knockdowns followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Guram Kutateladze | Kaue Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 232 | 232 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Kaue Fernandes demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Kaue Fernandes capitalized on this activity level, while Guram Kutateladze's 232-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Guram Kutateladze | Kaue Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 989 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Kaue Fernandes extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Guram Kutateladze is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Guram Kutateladze | Kaue Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.