April 6, 1995
Open Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Guy Mezger | John Dowdy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 051 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | John Dowdy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | John Dowdy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:02 | 2:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 164 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -31 |
Guy Mezger earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:02, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | John Dowdy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 17 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 195 | 877 |
| ELO Change | +123 | -123 |
Guy Mezger controlled the striking exchanges with 12 vs 0 significant strikes, 70.6% vs 0.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Guy Mezger capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | John Dowdy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 091 | 954 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Guy Mezger landed 1 knockdown followed by 8 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | John Dowdy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 113 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 070 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -20 |
Guy Mezger demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Guy Mezger capitalized on this activity level, while John Dowdy's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | John Dowdy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 047 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Guy Mezger extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Dowdy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | John Dowdy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.