May 29, 1997
UFC 13 Lightweight Tournament Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 102 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Guy Mezger's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Guy Mezger for the expected result. Had Tito Ortiz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 114 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -19 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Guy Mezger captured the UFC 13 Lightweight Tournament Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:00 | 2:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 248 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -33 |
Guy Mezger earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:00, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 237 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Tito Ortiz controlled the striking through superior volume (19 vs 0 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (5 vs 0), superior accuracy (26.3% vs 0.0%). However, since Tito Ortiz lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Guy Mezger's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 156 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 | 1 |
| Activity ELO | 1 256 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +172 | -17 |
Guy Mezger demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within 1 day since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Guy Mezger capitalized on this activity level, while Tito Ortiz's 1-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 095 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -18 |
Guy Mezger extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tito Ortiz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 077 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.