March 4, 1999
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 066 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +39 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 088 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 9:56 | 9:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 191 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +123 |
Tito Ortiz earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 9:56, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 4 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 92 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 101 | 1 325 |
| ELO Change | -136 | +136 |
Tito Ortiz dominated the striking exchanges with 92 vs 9 total strikes, 26 vs 2 significant strikes, 61.9% vs 50.0% accuracy. Tito Ortiz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 24 |
| Ground ELO | 1 093 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Tito Ortiz controlled Guy Mezger on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 24 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 645 | 56 |
| Activity ELO | 1 223 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +164 |
Tito Ortiz demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 56 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Tito Ortiz capitalized on this activity level, while Guy Mezger's 645-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 070 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +30 |
Tito Ortiz extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Guy Mezger is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Guy Mezger | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 053 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.