June 21, 2025
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Hamdy Abdelwahab | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 005 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Mohammed Usman's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mohammed Usman for the expected result. Had Hamdy Abdelwahab pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Hamdy Abdelwahab | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Hamdy Abdelwahab | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 973 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Mohammed Usman earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Hamdy Abdelwahab | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 86 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 123 | 179 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 86 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 990 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Mohammed Usman controlled the striking exchanges with 86 vs 55 total strikes, 86 vs 55 significant strikes. Mohammed Usman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Hamdy Abdelwahab | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 046 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Hamdy Abdelwahab | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 337 |
| Activity ELO | 1 000 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Mohammed Usman demonstrated standard activity with 337 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Mohammed Usman capitalized on this activity level, while Hamdy Abdelwahab's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Hamdy Abdelwahab | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Mohammed Usman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hamdy Abdelwahab is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Hamdy Abdelwahab | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.