December 17, 2021
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Harry Hunsucker | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 947 | 994 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Justin Tafa's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Justin Tafa for the expected result. Had Harry Hunsucker pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Harry Hunsucker | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 980 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Harry Hunsucker | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:53 | 1:53 |
| Win Type ELO | 943 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +94 |
Justin Tafa earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:53, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Harry Hunsucker | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 834 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Justin Tafa controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Justin Tafa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Harry Hunsucker | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 880 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Justin Tafa landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Harry Hunsucker | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 273 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 964 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +27 |
Justin Tafa demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Justin Tafa capitalized on this activity level, while Harry Hunsucker's 273-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Harry Hunsucker | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 960 | 985 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +25 |
Justin Tafa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Harry Hunsucker is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Harry Hunsucker | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 980 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.