March 21, 2002
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Hayato Sakurai | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 972 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Matt Hughes's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hughes for the expected result. Had Hayato Sakurai pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Hayato Sakurai | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +46 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Matt Hughes captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Hayato Sakurai | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 3:01 | 3:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 973 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +53 |
Matt Hughes gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 4, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Hayato Sakurai | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 58 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 112 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 932 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -68 | +68 |
Matt Hughes dominated the striking exchanges with 112 vs 14 total strikes, 36 vs 5 significant strikes, 62.1% vs 41.7% accuracy. Matt Hughes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Hayato Sakurai | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 15:52 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 27 |
| Ground ELO | 942 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Matt Hughes dominated Hayato Sakurai on the ground with 9 vs 0 takedowns, 15:52 of control time, 27 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Hayato Sakurai | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 982 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +37 |
Matt Hughes demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while Hayato Sakurai's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Hayato Sakurai | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Matt Hughes extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hayato Sakurai is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Hayato Sakurai | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.