January 24, 2007
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Heath Herring | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 973 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Jake O'Brien's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jake O'Brien for the expected result. Had Heath Herring pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Heath Herring | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Heath Herring | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 972 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Jake O'Brien earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Heath Herring | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 984 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Jake O'Brien slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 31.7% vs 18.0% accuracy. Jake O'Brien capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Heath Herring | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:41 | 9:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 954 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Jake O'Brien dominated Heath Herring on the ground with 6 vs 1 takedowns, 9:58 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Heath Herring | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 68 |
| Activity ELO | 983 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +50 |
Jake O'Brien demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 68 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Jake O'Brien capitalized on this activity level, while Heath Herring's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Heath Herring | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +24 |
Jake O'Brien extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Heath Herring is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Heath Herring | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

