October 11, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Hector Aldana | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 863 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Miguel Baeza overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 3 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Hector Aldana.
| Metric | Hector Aldana | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 941 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Hector Aldana | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:32 | 2:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 900 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +70 |
Miguel Baeza gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Hector Aldana | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 42 | 61 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 820 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -94 | +94 |
Miguel Baeza controlled the striking exchanges with 35 vs 8 total strikes, 35 vs 8 significant strikes, 57.4% vs 19.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Miguel Baeza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Hector Aldana | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 906 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Miguel Baeza landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Hector Aldana | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 329 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 941 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Miguel Baeza demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Miguel Baeza capitalized on this activity level, while Hector Aldana's 329-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Hector Aldana | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 941 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +20 |
Miguel Baeza started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hector Aldana is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Hector Aldana | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 941 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.