February 18, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 075 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Johny Hendricks's 10-fight experience advantage (19 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Johny Hendricks for the expected result. Had Hector Lombard pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 223 | 1 444 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Johny Hendricks earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 51 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 103 | 136 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 69 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 138 | 1 323 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Johny Hendricks edged the striking exchanges with 69 vs 43 total strikes, 51 vs 37 significant strikes. Johny Hendricks capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 191 | 1 355 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Johny Hendricks did not secure a significant ground advantage against Hector Lombard on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 261 | 51 |
| Activity ELO | 1 105 | 1 372 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +48 |
Johny Hendricks demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 51 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Johny Hendricks capitalized on this activity level, while Hector Lombard's 261-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 021 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +13 |
Johny Hendricks started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hector Lombard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 994 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.