March 18, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 130 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Neil Magny's 7-fight experience advantage (14 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Neil Magny for the expected result. Had Hector Lombard pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 032 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:46 | 0:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 278 | 1 400 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +85 |
Neil Magny gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 60 | 148 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 79 | 197 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 75 | 196 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 241 | 1 388 |
| ELO Change | -82 | +82 |
Neil Magny dominated the striking exchanges with 196 vs 75 total strikes, 148 vs 60 significant strikes. Neil Magny capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:36 | 2:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 41 | 100 |
| Ground ELO | 1 237 | 1 414 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Neil Magny edged out Hector Lombard on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:19 of control time, 100 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 441 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 129 | 1 444 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +17 |
Neil Magny demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Neil Magny capitalized on this activity level, while Hector Lombard's 441-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 053 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +16 |
Neil Magny extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hector Lombard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 030 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.