September 21, 2018
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 990 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Thales Leites's 9-fight experience advantage (21 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thales Leites for the expected result. Had Hector Lombard pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 949 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 132 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Thales Leites earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 80 | 117 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 015 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Thales Leites edged the striking exchanges with 54 vs 46 significant strikes, 46.2% vs 57.5% accuracy. Thales Leites capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:33 | 0:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 104 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Thales Leites edged out Hector Lombard on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 0:20 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 056 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +23 |
Thales Leites demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thales Leites capitalized on this activity level, while Hector Lombard's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 971 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +15 |
Thales Leites started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hector Lombard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 943 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

