July 20, 2012
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 983 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Tim Boetsch's 9-fight experience advantage (10 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tim Boetsch for the expected result. Had Hector Lombard pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 997 | 1 301 |
| ELO Change | -3 | +3 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Tim Boetsch receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 77 | 98 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 47 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 988 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
Tim Boetsch controlled the striking exchanges with 54 vs 26 significant strikes, 55.1% vs 33.8% accuracy. Tim Boetsch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:23 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 989 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Tim Boetsch did not secure a significant ground advantage against Hector Lombard on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 988 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +23 |
Tim Boetsch demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tim Boetsch capitalized on this activity level, while Hector Lombard's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +21 |
Tim Boetsch extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hector Lombard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

