March 1, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Yushin Okami |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 036 | 1 235 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Yushin Okami's 14-fight experience advantage (17 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Yushin Okami for the expected result. Had Hector Lombard pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Yushin Okami |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 997 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Yushin Okami |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 145 | 1 406 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +4 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Yushin Okami receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Yushin Okami |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 89 | 89 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 109 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 145 | 1 333 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
Hector Lombard controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (109 vs 65 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (45 vs 37). However, since Hector Lombard lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Yushin Okami's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Yushin Okami |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:50 | 4:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 054 | 1 403 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Yushin Okami controlled Hector Lombard on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:21 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Yushin Okami |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 78 | 63 |
| Activity ELO | 1 046 | 1 365 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +20 |
Yushin Okami demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Yushin Okami capitalized on this activity level, while Hector Lombard's 78-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Yushin Okami |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 005 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +14 |
Yushin Okami extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hector Lombard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Hector Lombard | Yushin Okami |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 996 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.