February 3, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Henry Martinez | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 962 | 965 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Matthew Riddle's 8-fight experience advantage (9 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matthew Riddle for the expected result. Had Henry Martinez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Henry Martinez | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Henry Martinez | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 991 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Matthew Riddle receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Henry Martinez | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 67 | 74 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 169 | 158 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 70 | 112 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 974 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Matthew Riddle controlled the striking exchanges with 112 vs 70 total strikes, 74 vs 67 significant strikes. Matthew Riddle capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Henry Martinez | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 959 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Matthew Riddle controlled Henry Martinez on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:20 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Henry Martinez | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 983 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +34 |
Matthew Riddle demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matthew Riddle capitalized on this activity level, while Henry Martinez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Henry Martinez | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Matthew Riddle started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Henry Martinez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Henry Martinez | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

