Herbert Burns vs Julio Arce

March 29, 2024

Featherweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

981
(-32)
Herbert Burns
Winner: Julio Arce
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 2:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Herbert Burns-32
Julio Arce+37
1077
(+37)
Julio Arce

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Herbert Burns: -31Julio Arce: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricHerbert BurnsJulio Arce
Total UFC Fights510
Experience Gap-55
Experience ELO1 0031 076
ELO Change-31+31
💡

What Happened

Julio Arce's 5-fight experience advantage (10 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Julio Arce for the expected result. Had Herbert Burns pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Herbert Burns: -20Julio Arce: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricHerbert BurnsJulio Arce
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9781 038
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Herbert Burns: -36Julio Arce: +75

Performance Statistics

MetricHerbert BurnsJulio Arce
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish2:002:00
Win Type ELO1 0451 202
ELO Change-36+75
💡

What Happened

Julio Arce gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Herbert Burns: -90Julio Arce: +90

Performance Statistics

MetricHerbert BurnsJulio Arce
Significant Strikes Landed1529
Significant Strikes Attempted5779
Total Strikes Landed2029
Knockdowns Scored02
Striking ELO8281 119
ELO Change-90+90
💡

What Happened

Julio Arce dominated the striking exchanges with 29 vs 15 significant strikes, 36.7% vs 26.3% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Julio Arce capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Herbert Burns: -23Julio Arce: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricHerbert BurnsJulio Arce
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted61
Ground Control Time1:160:08
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 0061 014
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

Julio Arce did not secure a significant ground advantage against Herbert Burns on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Herbert Burns: -20Julio Arce: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricHerbert BurnsJulio Arce
Days Since Last Fight624504
Activity ELO1 0191 079
ELO Change-20+18
💡

What Happened

Julio Arce demonstrated extended layoff with 504 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Julio Arce capitalized on this activity level, while Herbert Burns's 624-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Herbert Burns: -20Julio Arce: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricHerbert BurnsJulio Arce
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9871 053
ELO Change-20+22
💡

What Happened

Julio Arce started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Herbert Burns is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Herbert Burns: -20Julio Arce: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricHerbert BurnsJulio Arce
Weight ClassFeatherweightFeatherweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9781 038
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.