March 29, 2024
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Herbert Burns | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 003 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Julio Arce's 5-fight experience advantage (10 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Julio Arce for the expected result. Had Herbert Burns pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Herbert Burns | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Herbert Burns | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:00 | 2:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 045 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +75 |
Julio Arce gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Herbert Burns | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 57 | 79 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 828 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Julio Arce dominated the striking exchanges with 29 vs 15 significant strikes, 36.7% vs 26.3% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Julio Arce capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Herbert Burns | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:16 | 0:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 006 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Julio Arce did not secure a significant ground advantage against Herbert Burns on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Herbert Burns | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 624 | 504 |
| Activity ELO | 1 019 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +18 |
Julio Arce demonstrated extended layoff with 504 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Julio Arce capitalized on this activity level, while Herbert Burns's 624-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Herbert Burns | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 987 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Julio Arce started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Herbert Burns is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Herbert Burns | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

