August 25, 2006
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 063 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Hermes Franca's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Hermes Franca for the expected result. Had Jamie Varner pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:31 | 3:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 203 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -23 |
Hermes Franca earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:31, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jamie Varner was submitted.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 106 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 97 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 144 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Hermes Franca dominated the striking exchanges with 97 vs 41 total strikes, 47.8% vs 17.0% accuracy. Hermes Franca capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 15 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:09 | 7:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 1 121 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Hermes Franca controlled Jamie Varner on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:09 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 49 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 136 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +91 | -18 |
Hermes Franca demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 49 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Hermes Franca capitalized on this activity level, while Jamie Varner's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 054 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Hermes Franca extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jamie Varner is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.