July 7, 2006
Catch Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Joe Jordan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 035 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Hermes Franca's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Hermes Franca for the expected result. Had Joe Jordan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Joe Jordan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Joe Jordan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:47 | 0:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 168 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -27 |
Hermes Franca earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 0:47, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Joe Jordan was submitted.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Joe Jordan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 113 | 78 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 120 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Hermes Franca controlled the striking exchanges with 71 vs 31 total strikes, 46 vs 20 significant strikes, 40.7% vs 25.6% accuracy. Hermes Franca capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Joe Jordan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:22 | 1:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 079 | 918 |
| ELO Change | +82 | -82 |
Hermes Franca controlled Joe Jordan on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 1:22 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Joe Jordan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 827 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 045 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -19 |
Hermes Franca demonstrated extended layoff with 827 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Hermes Franca capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Jordan's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Joe Jordan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 031 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Hermes Franca started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Jordan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Joe Jordan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

