January 30, 2004
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Josh Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 032 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +38 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Josh Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Josh Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 136 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Josh Thomson earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Josh Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 68 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 82 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 109 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Josh Thomson controlled the striking exchanges with 82 vs 60 total strikes, 40 vs 22 significant strikes, 58.8% vs 47.8% accuracy. Josh Thomson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Josh Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:19 | 4:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 041 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Josh Thomson edged out Hermes Franca on the ground with 2 takedowns, 4:05 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Josh Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 128 | 128 |
| Activity ELO | 1 042 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +47 |
Josh Thomson demonstrated solid activity levels with 128 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Josh Thomson capitalized on this activity level, while Hermes Franca's 128-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Josh Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +27 |
Josh Thomson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hermes Franca is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Josh Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.