October 24, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 072 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Hermes Franca's 5-fight experience advantage (10 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Hermes Franca for the expected result. Had Marcus Aurelio pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 045 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 212 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Hermes Franca earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 60 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 122 | 104 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 65 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 124 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Hermes Franca controlled the striking exchanges with 60 vs 40 significant strikes, 49.2% vs 38.5% accuracy. Hermes Franca capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 1:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 006 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Hermes Franca did not secure a significant ground advantage against Marcus Aurelio on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 165 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -17 |
Hermes Franca demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Hermes Franca capitalized on this activity level, while Marcus Aurelio's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 061 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Hermes Franca started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcus Aurelio is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Hermes Franca | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

