October 2, 2020
Women's Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Holly Holm | Irene Aldana |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 131 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Holly Holm's 3-fight experience advantage (12 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Holly Holm for the expected result. Had Irene Aldana pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Holly Holm | Irene Aldana |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 112 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Holly Holm | Irene Aldana |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 233 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Holly Holm earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Holly Holm | Irene Aldana |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 154 | 69 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 301 | 185 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 187 | 92 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 221 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Holly Holm dominated the striking exchanges with 187 vs 92 total strikes, 154 vs 69 significant strikes, 51.2% vs 37.3% accuracy. Holly Holm capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Holly Holm | Irene Aldana |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 14 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:16 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 193 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +93 | -93 |
Holly Holm dominated Irene Aldana on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 5:16 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Holly Holm | Irene Aldana |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 294 |
| Activity ELO | 1 159 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -23 |
Holly Holm demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Holly Holm capitalized on this activity level, while Irene Aldana's 294-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Holly Holm | Irene Aldana |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 092 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Holly Holm extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Irene Aldana is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Holly Holm | Irene Aldana |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 068 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.