Ian Heinisch vs Kelvin Gastelum

February 12, 2021

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1102
(-24)
Ian Heinisch
Winner: Kelvin Gastelum
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Ian Heinisch-24
Kelvin Gastelum+25
1247
(+25)
Kelvin Gastelum

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Ian Heinisch: -26Kelvin Gastelum: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricIan HeinischKelvin Gastelum
Total UFC Fights618
Experience Gap-1212
Experience ELO1 1471 265
ELO Change-26+26
💡

What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum's 12-fight experience advantage (18 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kelvin Gastelum for the expected result. Had Ian Heinisch pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Ian Heinisch: -18Kelvin Gastelum: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricIan HeinischKelvin Gastelum
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0211 114
ELO Change-18+18
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Ian Heinisch: -22Kelvin Gastelum: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricIan HeinischKelvin Gastelum
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 2241 453
ELO Change-22+22
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What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Ian Heinisch: -22Kelvin Gastelum: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricIan HeinischKelvin Gastelum
Significant Strikes Landed2738
Significant Strikes Attempted6784
Total Strikes Landed5651
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 2161 308
ELO Change-22+22
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What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum edged the striking exchanges with 38 vs 27 significant strikes. Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Ian Heinisch: -62Kelvin Gastelum: +62

Performance Statistics

MetricIan HeinischKelvin Gastelum
Takedowns Landed16
Takedowns Attempted614
Ground Control Time1:116:50
Ground Strikes Landed12
Ground ELO1 0691 273
ELO Change-62+62
💡

What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum controlled Ian Heinisch on the ground with 6 vs 1 takedowns, 6:50 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Ian Heinisch: -10Kelvin Gastelum: +13

Performance Statistics

MetricIan HeinischKelvin Gastelum
Days Since Last Fight253211
Activity ELO1 0791 295
ELO Change-10+13
💡

What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this activity level, while Ian Heinisch's 253-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Ian Heinisch: -15Kelvin Gastelum: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricIan HeinischKelvin Gastelum
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0401 167
ELO Change-15+17
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What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ian Heinisch is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Ian Heinisch: -18Kelvin Gastelum: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricIan HeinischKelvin Gastelum
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0201 099
ELO Change-18+18
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.