December 13, 2019
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ian Heinisch | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 134 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Omari Akhmedov's 7-fight experience advantage (11 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Omari Akhmedov for the expected result. Had Ian Heinisch pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ian Heinisch | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 017 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ian Heinisch | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 100 | 1 309 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Omari Akhmedov earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ian Heinisch | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 53 | 55 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 103 | 166 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 70 | 69 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 107 | 1 207 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Ian Heinisch controlled the striking through superior accuracy (51.5% vs 33.1%). However, since Ian Heinisch lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Omari Akhmedov's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ian Heinisch | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:30 | 1:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 075 | 1 330 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Omari Akhmedov edged out Ian Heinisch on the ground with 2 takedowns, 1:33 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ian Heinisch | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 120 | 99 |
| Activity ELO | 1 043 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +40 |
Omari Akhmedov demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Omari Akhmedov capitalized on this activity level, while Ian Heinisch's 120-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ian Heinisch | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 031 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Omari Akhmedov extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ian Heinisch is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ian Heinisch | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 016 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

