June 28, 2024
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ian Machado Garry | Michael Page |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 354 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Ian Machado Garry's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ian Machado Garry for the expected result. Had Michael Page pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ian Machado Garry | Michael Page |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 159 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ian Machado Garry | Michael Page |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 418 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
Ian Machado Garry earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ian Machado Garry | Michael Page |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 39 | 38 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 65 | 52 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 466 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +4 | -4 |
Ian Machado Garry slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Ian Machado Garry capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ian Machado Garry | Michael Page |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:29 | 1:52 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 298 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Ian Machado Garry controlled Michael Page on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 7:29 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ian Machado Garry | Michael Page |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 344 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -7 |
Ian Machado Garry demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ian Machado Garry capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Page's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ian Machado Garry | Michael Page |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 8 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 290 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -9 |
Ian Machado Garry continued building serious momentum with a 8-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Michael Page's now at 0.
| Metric | Ian Machado Garry | Michael Page |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 158 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.