January 30, 2015
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ian McCall | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 000 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
John Lineker's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Lineker for the expected result. Had Ian McCall pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ian McCall | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 989 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ian McCall | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 015 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
John Lineker earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ian McCall | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 92 | 121 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 48 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 022 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
Ian McCall controlled the striking through superior volume (73 vs 48 total strikes), superior accuracy (43.5% vs 31.4%). However, since Ian McCall lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. John Lineker's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ian McCall | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:30 | 0:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 062 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
John Lineker did not secure a significant ground advantage against Ian McCall on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:46 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Ian McCall | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 197 | 200 |
| Activity ELO | 1 008 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +18 |
John Lineker demonstrated standard activity with 200 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, John Lineker capitalized on this activity level, while Ian McCall's 197-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ian McCall | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 998 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +21 |
John Lineker extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ian McCall is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ian McCall | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 989 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.