February 22, 2025
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ibo Aslan | Ion Cutelaba |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 040 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Ion Cutelaba's 15-fight experience advantage (18 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ion Cutelaba for the expected result. Had Ibo Aslan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ibo Aslan | Ion Cutelaba |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 014 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ibo Aslan | Ion Cutelaba |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:51 | 2:51 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 121 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +61 |
Ion Cutelaba earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:51, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Ibo Aslan | Ion Cutelaba |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 31 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 156 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Ibo Aslan lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Ion Cutelaba's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ibo Aslan | Ion Cutelaba |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 913 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -136 | +136 |
Ion Cutelaba dominated Ibo Aslan on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:06 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ibo Aslan | Ion Cutelaba |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 026 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +34 |
Ion Cutelaba demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ion Cutelaba capitalized on this activity level, while Ibo Aslan's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ibo Aslan | Ion Cutelaba |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 020 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +28 |
Ion Cutelaba extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ibo Aslan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ibo Aslan | Ion Cutelaba |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 014 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.