June 21, 2025
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ignacio Bahamondes | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 150 | 1 267 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Rafael Fiziev's 2-fight experience advantage (11 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Fiziev for the expected result. Had Ignacio Bahamondes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ignacio Bahamondes | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 061 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ignacio Bahamondes | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 360 | 1 409 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Rafael Fiziev earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ignacio Bahamondes | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 147 | 113 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 87 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 335 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Rafael Fiziev edged the striking exchanges with 87 vs 62 total strikes, 62 vs 50 significant strikes, 54.9% vs 34.0% accuracy. Rafael Fiziev capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ignacio Bahamondes | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:13 | 1:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 129 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | -93 | +93 |
Rafael Fiziev controlled Ignacio Bahamondes on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 1:43 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ignacio Bahamondes | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 142 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +52 |
Rafael Fiziev demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Fiziev capitalized on this activity level, while Ignacio Bahamondes's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ignacio Bahamondes | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 094 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Rafael Fiziev started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ignacio Bahamondes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ignacio Bahamondes | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 061 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.