July 14, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ildemar Alcantara | Kevin Casey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 995 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +46 |
Kevin Casey overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Ildemar Alcantara.
| Metric | Ildemar Alcantara | Kevin Casey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 008 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ildemar Alcantara | Kevin Casey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 976 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Kevin Casey earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ildemar Alcantara | Kevin Casey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 66 | 86 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 941 | 963 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Kevin Casey controlled the striking exchanges with 64 vs 20 total strikes, 41 vs 20 significant strikes, 47.7% vs 30.3% accuracy. Kevin Casey capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ildemar Alcantara | Kevin Casey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 3:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 960 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -86 | +86 |
Kevin Casey controlled Ildemar Alcantara on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:58 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ildemar Alcantara | Kevin Casey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 165 | 375 |
| Activity ELO | 1 043 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +24 |
Kevin Casey demonstrated extended layoff with 375 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Kevin Casey capitalized on this activity level, while Ildemar Alcantara's 165-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ildemar Alcantara | Kevin Casey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 015 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Kevin Casey started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ildemar Alcantara is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ildemar Alcantara | Kevin Casey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 008 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.