March 18, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 184 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -12 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 085 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:07 | 1:07 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 315 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -23 |
Ilia Topuria gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 41 | 63 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 250 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Jai Herbert controlled the striking through superior volume (50 vs 31 total strikes), superior accuracy (34.9% vs 48.8%), 1 knockdown. However, since Jai Herbert lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ilia Topuria's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:41 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 219 | 934 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Ilia Topuria landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 253 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 171 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -14 |
Ilia Topuria demonstrated standard activity with 253 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ilia Topuria capitalized on this activity level, while Jai Herbert's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 107 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -16 |
Ilia Topuria extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jai Herbert is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 085 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

