June 14, 2026
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 489 | 1 501 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Justin Gaethje's 6-fight experience advantage (16 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Justin Gaethje for the expected result. Had Ilia Topuria pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 347 | 1 281 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +95 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Justin Gaethje captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 739 | 1 794 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +110 |
Justin Gaethje gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 4, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 97 | 91 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 162 | 192 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 111 | 119 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 652 | 1 660 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Ilia Topuria controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (97 vs 91), superior accuracy (59.9% vs 47.4%), 1 knockdown. However, since Ilia Topuria lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Justin Gaethje's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:32 | 1:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 551 | 1 446 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Justin Gaethje did not secure a significant ground advantage against Ilia Topuria on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:32 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 351 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 329 | 1 372 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +45 |
Justin Gaethje demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Justin Gaethje capitalized on this activity level, while Ilia Topuria's 351-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 495 | 1 316 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +45 |
Justin Gaethje extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ilia Topuria is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 503 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.