September 2, 2016
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ilir Latifi | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -11 | 11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 066 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Ryan Bader's 11-fight experience advantage (19 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ryan Bader for the expected result. Had Ilir Latifi pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ilir Latifi | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 047 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ilir Latifi | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:06 | 2:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 301 | 1 495 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +62 |
Ryan Bader gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Ilir Latifi | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 34 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 15 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 160 | 1 398 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Ryan Bader controlled the striking exchanges with 38.2% vs 30.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Ryan Bader capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ilir Latifi | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:26 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 161 | 1 413 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Ilir Latifi | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 169 | 1 359 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +15 |
Ryan Bader demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ryan Bader capitalized on this activity level, while Ilir Latifi's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ilir Latifi | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 067 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +14 |
Ryan Bader started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ilir Latifi is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ilir Latifi | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 046 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

