September 28, 2024
Light Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ion Cutelaba | Ivan Erslan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 16 | -16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 025 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Ion Cutelaba's 16-fight experience advantage (17 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ion Cutelaba for the expected result. Had Ivan Erslan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ion Cutelaba | Ivan Erslan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 990 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ion Cutelaba | Ivan Erslan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 217 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -5 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Ion Cutelaba receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Ion Cutelaba | Ivan Erslan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 120 | 69 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 80 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 144 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Ion Cutelaba edged the striking exchanges with 45 vs 39 significant strikes, 37.5% vs 56.5% accuracy. Ion Cutelaba capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ion Cutelaba | Ivan Erslan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:59 | 5:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 046 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Ion Cutelaba edged out Ivan Erslan on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 1:59 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ion Cutelaba | Ivan Erslan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 114 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Ion Cutelaba demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ion Cutelaba capitalized on this activity level, while Ivan Erslan's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ion Cutelaba | Ivan Erslan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 009 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Ion Cutelaba started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ivan Erslan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ion Cutelaba | Ivan Erslan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 990 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

