December 15, 2023
Women's Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Irene Aldana | Karol Rosa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 143 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -31 |
Irene Aldana's 4-fight experience advantage (13 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Irene Aldana for the expected result. Had Karol Rosa pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Irene Aldana | Karol Rosa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 093 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Irene Aldana | Karol Rosa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 308 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Irene Aldana earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Irene Aldana | Karol Rosa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 145 | 204 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 308 | 350 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 145 | 204 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 262 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Karol Rosa controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (204 vs 145 total strikes), significant strike advantage (204 vs 145), superior accuracy (58.3% vs 47.1%). However, since Karol Rosa lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Irene Aldana's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Irene Aldana | Karol Rosa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 108 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Irene Aldana | Karol Rosa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 182 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -19 |
Irene Aldana demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Irene Aldana capitalized on this activity level, while Karol Rosa's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Irene Aldana | Karol Rosa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 117 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Irene Aldana started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Karol Rosa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Irene Aldana | Karol Rosa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 089 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.