November 21, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Isaac Vallie-Flagg | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -11 | 11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 025 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Matt Wiman's 11-fight experience advantage (15 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Wiman for the expected result. Had Isaac Vallie-Flagg pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Isaac Vallie-Flagg | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 967 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Isaac Vallie-Flagg | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 943 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Matt Wiman earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Isaac Vallie-Flagg | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 80 | 68 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 121 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 120 | 104 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 941 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Isaac Vallie-Flagg controlled the striking through superior volume (120 vs 104 total strikes), significant strike advantage (80 vs 68). However, since Isaac Vallie-Flagg lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Matt Wiman's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Isaac Vallie-Flagg | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:36 | 5:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 898 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Matt Wiman slightly outworked Isaac Vallie-Flagg on the ground with 5:05 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Isaac Vallie-Flagg | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | 665 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +10 |
Matt Wiman demonstrated extended layoff with 665 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Matt Wiman capitalized on this activity level, while Isaac Vallie-Flagg's 211-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Isaac Vallie-Flagg | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 975 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +16 |
Matt Wiman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Isaac Vallie-Flagg is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Isaac Vallie-Flagg | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 967 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

