January 18, 2025
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 572 | 1 280 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -11 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (17 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 495 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -6 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Islam Makhachev captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:05 | 4:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 854 | 1 484 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -10 |
Islam Makhachev earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:05, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 19 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 780 | 1 309 |
| ELO Change | +3 | -3 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Renato Moicano lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Islam Makhachev's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:27 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 840 | 1 418 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Islam Makhachev dominated Renato Moicano on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:27 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 232 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 520 | 1 279 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -9 |
Islam Makhachev demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Islam Makhachev capitalized on this activity level, while Renato Moicano's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 15 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 918 | 1 197 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -1 |
Islam Makhachev extended his incredible 15-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Renato Moicano is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 296 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.