July 16, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 314 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Islam Makhachev's 3-fight experience advantage (10 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Islam Makhachev for the expected result. Had Thiago Moises pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 163 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 2:38 | 2:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 459 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -18 |
Islam Makhachev earned a finish with a Submission in round 4 at 2:38, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Thiago Moises was submitted.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 61 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 92 | 44 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 148 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 392 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Islam Makhachev dominated the striking exchanges with 148 vs 18 total strikes, 61 vs 13 significant strikes, 66.3% vs 29.5% accuracy. Islam Makhachev capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:11 | 3:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 554 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Islam Makhachev dominated Thiago Moises on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 8:11 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 255 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -17 |
Islam Makhachev demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Islam Makhachev capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Moises's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 8 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 282 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -12 |
Islam Makhachev continued building serious momentum with a 8-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Thiago Moises's now at 0.
| Metric | Islam Makhachev | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 163 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

