Islam Makhachev vs Thiago Moises

July 16, 2021

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1323
(+25)
Islam Makhachev
Winner: Islam Makhachev
Submission
Round 4 • 2:38

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Islam Makhachev+25
Thiago Moises-18
1090
(-18)
Thiago Moises

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Islam Makhachev: +21Thiago Moises: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricIslam MakhachevThiago Moises
Total UFC Fights107
Experience Gap3-3
Experience ELO1 3141 151
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

Islam Makhachev's 3-fight experience advantage (10 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Islam Makhachev for the expected result. Had Thiago Moises pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Islam Makhachev: +16Thiago Moises: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricIslam MakhachevThiago Moises
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1631 039
ELO Change+16-16
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Islam Makhachev: +27Thiago Moises: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricIslam MakhachevThiago Moises
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round44
Time of Finish2:382:38
Win Type ELO1 4591 187
ELO Change+27-18
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What Happened

Islam Makhachev earned a finish with a Submission in round 4 at 2:38, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Thiago Moises was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Islam Makhachev: +17Thiago Moises: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricIslam MakhachevThiago Moises
Significant Strikes Landed6113
Significant Strikes Attempted9244
Total Strikes Landed14818
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 3921 010
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

Islam Makhachev dominated the striking exchanges with 148 vs 18 total strikes, 61 vs 13 significant strikes, 66.3% vs 29.5% accuracy. Islam Makhachev capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Islam Makhachev: +29Thiago Moises: -29

Performance Statistics

MetricIslam MakhachevThiago Moises
Takedowns Landed31
Takedowns Attempted62
Ground Control Time8:113:24
Ground Strikes Landed121
Ground ELO1 5541 088
ELO Change+29-29
💡

What Happened

Islam Makhachev dominated Thiago Moises on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 8:11 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Islam Makhachev: +35Thiago Moises: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricIslam MakhachevThiago Moises
Days Since Last Fight133140
Activity ELO1 2551 141
ELO Change+35-17
💡

What Happened

Islam Makhachev demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Islam Makhachev capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Moises's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Islam Makhachev: +40Thiago Moises: -12

Performance Statistics

MetricIslam MakhachevThiago Moises
Win Streak80
Win Streak ELO1 2821 065
ELO Change+40-12
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What Happened

Islam Makhachev continued building serious momentum with a 8-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Thiago Moises's now at 0.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Islam Makhachev: +16Thiago Moises: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricIslam MakhachevThiago Moises
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1631 039
ELO Change+16-16
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.