March 5, 2021
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 416 | 1 326 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Jan Blachowicz's 6-fight experience advantage (16 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jan Blachowicz for the expected result. Had Israel Adesanya pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 277 | 1 268 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +84 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Jan Blachowicz captured the UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 617 | 1 658 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Jan Blachowicz earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 78 | 107 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 161 | 193 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 99 | 184 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 780 | 1 656 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Jan Blachowicz dominated the striking exchanges with 184 vs 99 total strikes, 107 vs 78 significant strikes. Jan Blachowicz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 7:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 1 280 | 1 520 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Jan Blachowicz dominated Israel Adesanya on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 7:06 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 419 | 1 410 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +45 |
Jan Blachowicz demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jan Blachowicz capitalized on this activity level, while Israel Adesanya's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 403 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +63 |
Jan Blachowicz continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Israel Adesanya's now at 0.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 174 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.