September 25, 2020
UFC Middleweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 463 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Israel Adesanya's 3-fight experience advantage (9 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Israel Adesanya for the expected result. Had Paulo Costa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 305 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -12 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Israel Adesanya captured the UFC Middleweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:59 | 3:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 666 | 1 441 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -25 |
Israel Adesanya gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 84 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 834 | 1 420 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Israel Adesanya controlled the striking exchanges with 55 vs 12 total strikes, 55 vs 12 significant strikes, 65.5% vs 46.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Israel Adesanya capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 344 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Israel Adesanya landed 1 knockdown followed by 8 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 406 |
| Activity ELO | 1 445 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -8 |
Israel Adesanya demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Israel Adesanya capitalized on this activity level, while Paulo Costa's 406-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 9 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 436 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -9 |
Israel Adesanya continued building serious momentum with a 9-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Paulo Costa's now at 0.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 199 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.